Long AAPL, GRMN, GOOG, MOS
After the bell update
So once again, the indices were virtually flat. It is true we are still currently below the necktie level but at the same time, we didn't crater either. Sometimes we have to give these movements a little bit of time to work out. Which is why I've decided to cover today. For all I know tomorrow could be another consolidating day. But the longer we consolidate, the more bullish I am feeling.
As for my positions: For MA I covered 75% of my position near the lows at $223 with my initial shorts at $232. I wanted it to go lower but for now, the way the indices are acting I just prefer not to take the chance. $9 isn't too bad.
For RIMM my short started @ $123. Covered 75% today at the open at $115. Again, isn't what my ideal target. But I still have a small position left. I will probably cover that tomorrow regardless. $8 dollar profit
X I covered 75% at $141.50. Boy I tell ya this one has been on a tear. The charts still show this as a severely overbought stock and I am still absolutely blown away after near 2 weeks of trading this stock still have a 4 handle. I didn't really make money off this trade...just broke even. But sometimes that's the way it is.
My plan going into the next few days: Given the amount of economic data we're going to get I imagine we gonna have some volatile movements in stock prices. But I still have a long side bias.
But all in all, my current trades are not too bad. Mosiac (MOS) have been on a tear. I am getting a little concerned now because it has gone up a lot...but hey, I'm not going to complain.
Garmin came down a little today. Not much action yet...I will stick with it for now.
Google earnings this Thursday is going to set the tone for tech; same with IBM.
As for the anonymous poster who asked about STLD: My opinion on the stock is STLD looks to be consolidating after a nice pullback. Observe:
- Stock has a nice upward channel and have not violated its trend (maintaining above the 20DMA consistently)
- Pulled back and is now consolidating on nice volume (there's also a decrease in sell volume)
- MACD is still a concern though, it is sky high
- But, commodity prices should continue to benefit if the dollar continues to tank. Along with global demand of steel.
- Sitting right on that 20DMA now
I have to admit the strength of the steel sector has just been absolutely amazing (just look at my X trade, I had to sack through a lot of pain with the shorts on that one...If I just went long instead would have made a very nice trade). I have to study the price action a little bit in order for me to justify doing anything with this company. But just from a glance, I think you might have a winner here that could be on its way up. Just always keep in mind though the steel sector has already made a monster move up...so make sure if you're trading it keep that nice tight stop to protect profits. If you're trying to get in it for the long haul, this stock could reward handsomely...
Tomorrow I think is going to be a pretty big action day. Don't know how the intraday is going to play out but I am going to stick with the discipline and maintain a short term upward bias. Hopefully it'll pay off.
Be careful out there and invest wisely. Good luck to us.
Damn that was a long post...
- DL
Disclosure:
Long AAPL, GRMN, MOS, GOOG
25% Short Positions on X, RIMM, MA
13 comments:
i long rimm today when you cover it today 115.09 and
long STLD at 20ma 34.46 you think this good long STLD dip buy
oh iam try that grmn with you stop is 43.00 i like lower risk stop
I too am long RIMM here today, Monday 4/14th.
Waiting on GRMN.
I am completely lost with X. My PUTs will expire next Friday and the stock behaves like creating a new resistance, unbelievable!!!. I do think that it will have a downturn shortly but probably it will be too late for me.
I'm sorry to hear that yes X has been a very tough trade. This was why for my shorts I opted not to trade it by options with the common shares. That way I'm not pressured by the time factors and decay. But yes...absolutely stunning performance by X. I didn't make any money off that trade.
At least I found at Yahoo tonight that insiders sold 30K options today. They might expect a downturn shortly. Hopefully I will have the opportunity to minimize my losses.
X, nice to see you're getting more readers, I was the person who asked about STLD on the RIMM section on google. I would have asked here but wasn't sure if you checked the comments. I agree with your analysis but the MACD scares me, but it tends to lag so I'm not too sure.
As for the markets maybe I'm foolish but I'm optimistic the market will go down with more bad news from the financial sector and if IBM disappoints it could potentially cause a repeat of what happened when GE missed earnings.
I'll watch the early morning trades closely, maybe close out most of my shorts (I lost all my profits on that April 1st rally).
thanks for the STLD chart techicals info
i made a nice $2000 on ma short
i loss $290 on X short
made 1500$ on rimm short
but now long it rimm
MOS what PICK I LOVE $5000
man you like 89% right
iam %60 right / %40 wrong LOL
i know techicals some what with MAs only and rest i lack in others stuff
iam so happy you got this blog on stocks
keep on the nice work
i love it and thankful your do this too help the small guy
all in do time you will be greatly reward too
in a stock or Lotto jackpot man who knows
Thanks for the comment guys. And Mr.Jeanius you could be right if the earnings disappoint by more than what the street expects we could be seeing some headwinds. This is what being a swing trader is all about. We have a certain theory but we have to make sure the markets support our theory. And the second it doesn't we have to re-evaluate the game plan. The bottom line is making sure we're on the right side of the trade.
what do you think about MOS technically at the moment. i want to buy calls on MOS before POT earnings come out on 24. but at the moment MOS seems like run up too high. do you think its gonna come down this week a bit? i wanted to enter at 105-115.
Can you explain the necktie Theory?
X, very true, I'm sure I would have been screwed over today if oil didn't reach $114/barrel. "Buy on fear sell on greed."
Still unsure if I should buy STLD, I'm thinking I might wait until their CC and judge from their quarterly results.
Mr J,
yea that will probably be the prudent thing to do. And from my humble experience from trading I would strongly advise you to never do anything into earnings (long or short) it is just way too risky and pretty much a gamble.
I have made personal convictions to never play earnings. I have been burned once and learned my lesson.
Hey Bassman, my two posts titled "Observations about the current market trend" is all about the neckties. But long story short, it is simply the convergence of two moving averages together to form a strong support/resistance point.
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