Friday, April 18, 2008

Market Morning Update

BA BA BA BOOYA! Chew on this Cramer GOOG is up $80! Cramer's beloved ISRG? Not so pretty...down $56 right now @ $292 OUCH. It broke its 50DMA but if its any comfort it's most likely a fakeout to shake off weak longs and margin holders. If the company destroyed earnings we could reasonably expect this to have a solid rebound soon enough.

Market indices are UP HUGE 200+ on the Dow as we speak at 12,800, Nasdaq +45, S&P at 1,385

Commodities sector not joining the party. In fact they are selling off as we speak. I am debating really hard right now should I re-initiate my shorts on X for a quick trade...

Alright Yes I am. Citigroup just downgraded X to a hold from buy. Citing full valuation to the stock and stating the "easy money has been made." I am usually not the one to agree with analysts. But I think this call holds a lot of merit. Overstretched technicals, euphoric buying, a possible retrace in the works becoming likely. I'm liking the odds. 20DMA is at $138 from a 3 month chart. Not sure if it will get there but from the daily 10min chart, there are now 2 very strong resistance levels on X (20DMA and 50DMA). Profit taking should start kicking in hardcore. ROUND 2 X! I'M COMING BACK FOR MORE!

Remember my post from 4/16?
I believe we are now going to test that first resistance point on the S&P at the 1390-1400 level (and I'm going to have to assume we will fail on this first breakout, since the first test usually never succeeds.) After this monster move expect at least a 50% retracement in the indices from recent gains. I actually think by the end of the day the markets are going to sell off somewhat and we will not end at the highs of the day. Just a guess, but we'll see what happens

Take some profits off the table!

Disclosure:
Long AAPL, GOOG, GRMN, 50% MOS
Short X

Update 2: I am selling another 25% of my MOS.

2 comments:

philpik said...

You are sooooooo right! The TV geniuses took me off google Thursday,was looking to strangle the 450put/500call. They skew your thinking,again your advice on sticking with your trading plan,and watching the technicals is so true. I enjoy your blog and tremendous advice, Thanks a million!

CJ said...
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