- Stock is at 52 week low
- Extreme pessimism (very high short interest) could spark short covering on any uptick.
- Options indicates a bet that the stock will reach 60 before options Ex (April 60 calls has 13,392 open contracts)
- Stock is now at the 3 year 200DMA level (as shown on the technical chart)
- All indicators showing a severe oversold status
- Many analyst have downgraded this stock already
- Bad news could already be factored into the stock price
- Panic selling has occurred (notice the huge red volume bars in the past month)
- If the markets bounce hard in the near future (as indicated by previous post by the "necktie" theory, this stock could spurt some buying interest.
- Possible takeover/merger target?
Opinion and plan: Let me be the first to say that my plan is to TRADE this stock, not to invest in it. I believe this is now at a level so oversold where the downside is very limited, but a rally due to short covering could potentially give it a quick 20-30% boost. Unless this stock tanks to 0 and goes bankrupt, this seems to be a golden opportunity to make some fast money.
Buy @ $45. Stop loss at $40. Target price $55-$60. 2 week target.
If the indices continue to consolidate and selloff tomorrow (taking this stock with it), I will most likely initiate my position.
Good luck to us. As Warren Buffet once said: "Buy on FEAR, Sell on Greed" Everyone is jumping ship on Garmin. All the ingrediants seem to be setting up for a nice bounce.
- DL
2 comments:
another thing..you said you would buy if grmn drops tomorrow again..which it did. So you must have a position now. I was only gonna buy if the stock broke the previous days high on Friday which it didn't. One can think
A- the market was extremely bearish and grmn was set for a rebound but got lost in the nasdaqs big decline or B- we still have some further downward selling momentum before this thing bottoms. I think we are very close to the bottom here and I like the chart signs as well. I would like to see a RB or a nice long tail or both..then buy on the next day that breaks the high of the RB or tail. How did you read the volume on April 8th?? I thought that indicated all the selling had been exhausted. I was ready to go long if Friday closed above Thursdays high. I'm interested to see what this week will bring here
let me know
I actually did not initiate my position until Friday because on Thursday the market was up and I never buy stocks going long when the market is up. But yes, I have a position now. As far as the volume on 4/8 yes the stock sold off bigtime no doubt about it, and the subsequent days we saw even more selling pressure. My take is right now since the stock is at a near 52 week low I'm willing to take a chance. I cannot say when the rebound will occur but it is my belief that if the stock market bounces hard next week according to technicals, that might produce a short squeeze that could see the stock have some nice upside for a few days. And that is what I am gunning for. I'm not in this for the long haul, I am in it probably no longer than after options ex. And my stop is at 40. I have position starting at 45 and my plan is I will triple my position at 41 if it gets there and if there's still no rebound then I will just move on and no hard feelings. We will see what happens.
Good luck next week
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