Market Update - 4/28

New week, new beginning.

The markets are closing in on the late January highs and now pretty much hovering at that level. This is creating a very interesting setup into fed meeting. My thinking is if the fed does NOT cut rates because of inflation concern, yet the markets expectation is a 25bp cut, this will be enough of a catalyst to cause a "sell the rally" news. And this will once again prove why news feed generated by the media is just a mask that affirms the pattern of technicals...going to have to dig deeper into this.

Apple is going up some more today...same with Google. Even though I own these stocks I feel they may be vulnerable to a huge selloff in the near future.

Mosiac is absolutely getting dumped hand over fist, as the same with the entire ag sector. I'm not going to short it because I recognize the global food demand...not to mention the stock could easily jump 10% as fast as it loses it. No matter what, I'm just glad I sold a significant amount of my MOS position at the 130's.

BIDU caved in a bit this morning which was good. I have been day trading its technicals aggressively today to make up the points I've lost. Gotta work it back.

But for new investors or those really tempted to pour money long... I know I've been wrong on calls and I own it, but don't pour your money in now....you've honestly missed 90% of the ride.

I'm hoping the markets can continue to inch up like this into fed day. I'm more and more convinced the fed may actually not cut at all this time around. And it'll lead the markets to selloff.

In the meantime, I am starting to have a severely heavy bias towards shorting stocks in the near future. Too many people bullish now...too many people ignoring the fact that WE ARE STILL IN A CREDIT CRISIS. There may be a little bit of upside left, but I really feel the majority of the upmove has been seen. Later this afternoon I'll post some charts on the indices. Stay tuned.

-DL

Disclosure:
Long AAPL, GOOG, 25% MOS
Short BIDU