Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Potential oversold bounce on the way?

Well, those of you that have been following my blog knows I've been calling the markets to correct sharply. And today the culmination of oil hitting a new historic high coupled with the fed stating they are done cutting rates finally did the trick.

I think tomorrow and going into Friday because it is memorial day weekend we could potentially see a small bounce on light volume. If you are going to be playing any oversold bounces be sure you keep that stop in place. I don't think we are done going down yet though - Not even close

I mentioned yesterday I would be all over the SOLF short should it pop due to earnings and that's exactly what I did. Shorted it right in the morning at $28 so I am up comfortably right now. Tomorrow we could see some more profit taking come in. If you are on the short trade like me, watch these levels of support:

S1 $24.77
S2 $23.04
S3 $20.84

I am on the run today. Invest wisely and be careful out there.

-DL

Disclosure:
Long GOOG, V
Short SOLF, USO

12 comments:

Unknown said...

You still in USO?

xman said...

Sorry bout that I forgot to add it in. It is fixed now. And yes I still have it. And I am down a lot...but I am going to keep it for now.

hahighbaby said...

I'm absolutely convinced oils rise is clearly those slick ricks on wall street pumping it up. You can clearly see a parabolic move forming. Cut Goldman, Lehman, and the 50 other peversed banks on wallstreet from investing in oil, and we see $60 oil FAST.

Its unethical how wsj, bloomberg, etc are not calling the snakes out. I cannot believe the deception level on wallstreet.

Anonymous said...

AMX (America Movil Sab de cv) appears to oscillate regularly between the high 60s and the low to mid 50s....

Do you have any thoughts on it? The swing is less then PWRD in percentage terms, but still....

Unknown said...

hahighbaby, there was a Bloomberg article that spoke of Wall Street pumping oil prices as they cover their shorts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3MgWEz_Qch0&refer=home

Lehman I believe was one of the companies calling for a commodity bubble so it wouldn't surprise me if they were one.

Unknown said...

im in at 23.50. Where should I set my stops? (short)

xman said...

V,

AMX from technicals looking a bit overbought. Wait for a pullback.

Unknown said...

sorry, SOLF is what im in.

xman said...

bassman,

You have to watch for now whether or not the bottom on SOLF will hold. Yes it is true currently SOLF just cracked below the 200DMA on the daily but it could have a small rebound after its massive tank from 29 to 23 today. If the lows of today (22.5) gets cracked, then you can reasonably expect SOLF to tank hard. Possibly below 20.

I will be watching it with you.

xman said...

mr. Jeanius,

Good article. I am very convinced also that the massive run up in oil prices has more to do with artificial inflating of price over actual demand. Anyone that thinks oil deserves to have this kind of run up is just mad.

xman said...

bassman,

looks like the bottom just gave away on solf!! Good deal!!

xman said...

Take some profits though man this is a massive move down from yesterday's closing price. There are going to be bottom fishers coming in to give this a lift most likely. Wait for that bounce back up, and then ride it down again.