Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Energy Conversion Devices Inc (ENER) - Shorting Opportunity?


This stock had an amazing week. Shot from a gun at 32 all the way to the highs closing at 55.20> This is one of those Solar plays that have had a parabolic rebound from the abyss since the beginning of the year. But recall First Solar, LDK Solar, Evergreen Solar, Solarfun - etc., after big earnings move up and a few days of euphoria will most certainly have a profit taking selloff. The stock has hit a 52 week high. And when oil recedes in the near future (which I still believe, that is why I have my USO short), alternative energy will also pull back. And stocks like ENER have gone up so much that it is the most susceptible to pullbacks.

If the stock bounces to 56+ tomorrow I believe it is a great profit taking short opportunity. With its overbought signals and the stock reaching 52 week high we could see it fall back to 50 due to profit taking and it could happen very fast. Wouldn't be such a bad trade.

I will initiate shorts starting from 56 all the way up to 59. Looking for it to pull back to 50. 3 dollar downside, $6-$9 upside. Pay attention to this one.

-DL

4 comments:

hahighbaby said...

Off topic, but aapl showed some good volume and strength on tuesday. I think theres a solid chance it breaks well above its 52 wk high, like RIMM did recently. It may require a news catalyst though.

xman, have you jumped back into AAPL recently? Or do you plan to? Or are you reading a sell off coming?

xman said...

hahighbaby,

I know I have missed out the past 6 points in the stock. But apple has just gotten way too overstretched for my comfort level to ignore. It needs to have a significant correction where the moving averages can catch up to the price action before I will be confident to commit new capital back in. The selloff possibility is ringing louder and louder every day as we see countless media hours focused on how apple is so great and it's never going to dive again...that's just absolutely ridiculous. I have learned my lesson before about not locking profits when technicals get way too overstretched. I will not make that mistake again. I will wait for apple to have a 15-20 point pullback at least before I will decide what to do.

Unknown said...

X,

what are your thoughts on RIMM. Its obvious this thing way ahead of itself but I can't seem to tell where it should fall.

xman said...

mr. jeanius,

I know RIMM has been ramping big lately...but from from the daily intraday charts RIMM's technical pattern still looks bullish. Perhaps wait to see until it hits 145 how the technicals setup then. But you're absolutely right, should the market correct big, we could see RIMM drop 10 very fast.