- Note the double bottom that is holding since the January Lows
I am buying it for a trade right now at $37.35 going to ride the reflex bounce potentially back up to $40~
Let's see if it'll work out.
I am selling half my PWRD position @ $27. Made nearly 4 points on it. No one ever made a dime being greedy. So it's time to sell.
Markets are setting up now perfectly for the next leg down. If you are long stocks, pick your spots and stay disciplined!
- DL
Disclosure
Long GOOG, 75% V, 35% PWRD, JCG
Short USO
13 comments:
I took your advice and bought PWRD at $23.7 and $25.38, and I sold them all today at $27. I made too many mistakes before and gave up all my gains, so I am not greedy this time.
Thanks for your advice!
As for JCG, I think drop like this usually continues dropping for 1 or 2 more days. What's your stop price?
Vincent,
Congrats on the PWRD trade. As for the JCG trade, on Monday it could potentially go lower, but I am encouraged by the action today because the stock did not end at the lows of the session. It is nearly $1 over. But on Monday if it exudes anymore weakness my opinion is that's the window to buy. Stocks that tank this fast this hard regardless of their outlook in my opinionion will most likely get an oversold bounce. (catalyst being short covering) my stop is when the stock breaks the double bottom from today and the lows of January. So I'd say below 35. But I think from just a technical perspective just like pwrd this is due for an oversold bounce.
Good luck to us
Thanks for your response!
We just have to wait and see.
Good luck!
Hey Xman, how do you feel about june puts on MOS and DBA? Chart set-up looks ready for a breakdown.
What do you think?
marketm,
what charts are you looking at that shows them ready to breakdown? Please tell me your source.
It is hard to tell what is going to happen. But I will not short commodity names because of the strength it exudes. DBA is not a short in my opinion because it has already gone down a lot (from 43 to 34 now). It's 200DMA is at 33.59 and to me the risk reward is not worth it to short at this point.
As for MOS, well that is pretty much another commodity stock that's probably included within the DBA fund. From a 6 month chart to a 3 year chart MOS is still in an undisputable bull trend.
I cannot short these stocks. Maybe daytrades yes. But even then I would not be comfortable doing it. Next week I guess we will knwo what will happen.
Please show me the charts you've been talking about. If you're seeing an opportunity I'm not please let me know.
Gov't is set to reveal its probe on commodity trading next week. Fertilizers are not traded on the market of course.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/31/business/31cftc.html?ref=business
ICE's ceo mentioned "When credible people are saying oil could go to $200, it's important that people recognize it's not the venue, it's the market dynamics"
Goldman, Morgan, etc are far from credible.
Visa has had a big burst up - is it likely to pull back much? I shorted it at 85.2 in the hope that it will soften to 80 in the next few weeks Any thoughts? I am long term bullish for the stock, but short term? I see you are still in it long...
Congratulations on your PWRD trade (I shall stay in a little longer I think) - but more so for your USO trade, which is looking rather less horrible that it did a few days ago.
XMan, this is my set up for DBA, take a look and tell me what you see and if I am wrong.
http://www.screencast.com/users/MarketMinotaur/folders/Jing/media/05729102-b7bd-4b9a-9b78-7bd01fcd336d
And this is my set-up for MOS.
its not far along as DBA but the charts tell me that it is going to break to the downside.
let me know your opinion.
http://www.screencast.com/users/MarketMinotaur/folders/Jing/media/50001946-235e-4229-aa1c-ceed87e10af4
x...do you use a stock indicator for like gaps,hitting certain trend lines, 52 week lows ect ...if so which site or program is best?? or does your trading platform include all of that?
marketm,
good analysis. I would still say stay cautious if you are going to put on those short positions. It just seems in my opinion that although the group may be pressured, their downdrafts will be used as buying opportunities for investors to pile in.
Good luck
nolan,
I use scottrade elite, and yes, it has most of those features you mentioned.
V,
I am bullish on V but even I admit Visa is a very crowded long. However I am just going to stick with the discipline and the long term thesis and ride out the volatility. I don't doubt though in the short term you have a very strong potential to make money on the short side. Just be careful and stay disciplined!
Thanks X, just something I was looking at. Today it is rallying along with the other Ag stocks.
I will see how it hold up in this environment.
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