Monday, May 5, 2008

Market Update 5/5

Another new week...and although the indices are down today, I am getting kicked in the balls!

PWRD is now up nearly 4 points since I first spotted it as a potential shorts. It is nearly at 33 bucks now wtf! I still have a short position on it but I'm getting hit pretty hard...Wow

Losing it a little bit here...and just frustrated. That is 3 bad picks I've had in a month. And all because I was too pessimistic about the market. (All my losers were short positions). Am I being too negative about the market? Are we really out of a recession already???

Reflecting...

EDIT 1:

MY LOSS IS YOUR GAIN. LOOK AT THE PWRD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BELOW.



- Notice how there's been 5 winning sessions on PWRD followed by one huge buy candle that's significantly higher than everything else. BUT THEN NOTICE THE SUBSEQUENT DAYS THAT FOLLOWS IT.
-RSI is at near 6 MONTH HIGH
- All other indicators are at max out
- The highest it can go is probably 34 at this point. But this one is going to plummet back down to at least the 20DMA ($27)
- If we sell off today hard, that means Asian markets will follow suit. Which means by tomorrow PWRD will start to tank.

I AM TRIPLING MY POSITION. SHORT THIS BITCH. IT IS TIME TO TAKE A STAND!!

-DL

Disclosure:
3X Short PWRD

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I bough some PUTs (COST, WGOV and WU) almost 02 weeks ago. I really don't know what is going on. The market and those stocks are still holding!!!!

I need a drop of 2% in COST and WU. Unbelievable!!!

Anonymous said...

Very interesting the following quote from Yahoo, after market closing:

"Traders were hesitant to buy stocks in the face of the S&P 500's 12% surge from its low in March to Friday's closing level"

xman said...

where did you hear that from? Link Please?

Anonymous said...

Check the market update at 4:20 PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview?u

hahighbaby said...

"Sukcers rally" article from bloomberg (similar to xmans previous blog post. nice call btw)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aC8ge4XA60tY

Joul said...

Dear xman,
Just hope you take account the following latest news provided by briefing.com:
"China Online Games: Brean Murray advises investors to opportunistically add to positions in PWRD, NTES, SNDA

Brean Murray would advise investors to opportunistically add to positions in their preferred PWRD/NTES/SNDA basket, as firm believes the space is experiencing a beginning of a multiple expansion trend. Firm continues to believe the space will have a good set of 1Q08 results. Firm remains very optimistic on NetEase (NTES) given significant strength in download numbers for FWJ and the commitment to release TX2 in June, and on Perfect World (PWRD) whose flagship game ZX shows solid progress in server growth. Firm believes the next significant catalyst for Shanda Interactive (SNDA) is the start of open beta for Chang Chun, for which the co is yet to announce the date. Firm is somewhat more cautious on The9 (NCTY) given its recent server stability issues in WoW that may offset any near-term catalysts in the stock. "

Good luck with your short position.
Best Regards
Joul

xman said...

joul ooi,

If anything, I know PWRD has a very competitive product line. But my thinking about shorting this stock is the mere fact how hard it has ran up throughout the past month. And if history serves its purpose, then we can see this stock can give back gains just as quickly as it gets them. We will see how it goes. Thanks for your support!

Unknown said...

xman.
I support your call on the market, just beleive that you like me are a little ahead of it. I am very bad about patience. The 200ma of all the indexs i beleive are the key along with the trendlines. The indexs trendlines are also at the 200ma. This week holds i beleive where future weeks to months will be. Indexs should not go above over 1% nor close over 2 days above trendlines/200ma, or current countertrend rally will continue for another 600 points in DOW or so.