Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Here Comes the Market Turn

See what happens when too many people keep getting suckered into going long? Institutions will just smile and sell blind bulls their shares while the average investors suffer the pain.

I've posted last Friday the imminent correction the market must endure once again. And today it is starting to show steam. Indices as of 11:35AM PST is down about 2% across the board.

I have sold my remaining 25% MOS position into strength this morning at about $128. I'm going to wait until it goes below $110 before I jump back in.

My PWRD is now a big winner it is down another 4% today. Close to my cover mark. But I will let it ride for now.

AAPL taking a little hit, same with GOOG. But I'm a buyer of weakness on their pullbacks. But not yet even these guys have ran too far.

I am ready to increase my short positions when theres any sign of small strength up (for example like yesterday, we rallied big off the lows and blind bulls thought that was the end of the correction and bought in, they are feeling the pain today).

Be careful out there now. This is not the time yet to be a hero and jump in long. We're staring a long way down.

-DL

Disclosure
Long AAPL, GOOG, V
Short 2x PWRD

-PS Oil is performing once again on a huge down day. But I believe the steam in oil is about to run out as well. Take a look at the USO oil ETF fund. It is topping out near $100



Consider also
- The crude inventory report that came out today which stated more supply has been injected into the economy the past month
- The dollar potentially strengthening again on the speculation of the fed is done cutting rates
- Gigantic run it has made
- The heavily biased bullish tone people have on oil

All makes me believe oil, and this fund, will have sharp corrections so fast longs will not even have time to react to sell their shares to lock profits. As the first line of support, USO could correct to $93. Then depending on the overall macro effect we could see it test its 50DMA as well. Keep in mind, these are trades, not investments. I will be paying very close attention to this fund. And my plan right now is to initiate short positions on it should it hit par ($100)

It is at $99.70 ...not that far away.

-DL

2 comments:

hahighbaby said...

I'm looking for an entrance into MA, whats a good entry point?

They didn't even have the decency to start the sell off at 3pm. What is the world coming to.

xman said...

hahighbaby,

Honestly, although I would not bet against MA to perform, from a technical standpoint it has such a huge gap to fill.

I will post a chart in a little bit. But the jump from its earnings, coupled with its subsequent days of gains, means the stock is so overbought to the extreme it is very dangerous to buy it going long at this level.