Last Thursday I mentioned to start taking long positions off if you're swing trading because the market technicals told us so. And sure enough, today we are seeing the continuation to the market fall.
JCG is taking another hit today. I am buying another 33% position at $36. I will keep buying it until this rebounds. From a technicals perspective JCG has just been overkilled way too much, way too fast. Even if the retail "outlook" may be looking bad in the year to come, I pay much more attention to technicals over fundamentals and outlooks. And right now, the technicals are pointing to this stock as a screaming buy. There's a time to be cautious and there's a time to be greedy. JCG in my opinion is now a stock I'm willing to buy hand over fist. I'll be the first one to double and triple slap myself to oblivion if JCG doesn't see $40 within a month. Be patient with this trade, this is now the time when everyone is jumping off the cliff. And discipline tells us to buy stocks when they are getting obliterated. This is still a profitable company, it has no debt, and just because it lowered guidance doesn't mean the stock will never see another green day in its life. BUY ON FEAR.
PWRD position taking a beating again today. Good thing I lightened up last Friday. I hope you did too. If PWRD takes another hit tomorrow I am going to buy my position back.
The key now to trading in a market downdraft if you're long stocks is to pick your spots and stay disciplined. Don't let the gyrations shake you out of stocks you own if the technicals are present to support the price action.
Markets are about to close in 15 minutes but rebounding a good amount from its lowest levels of the day (I think from nearly 200 points plunge?) Invest wisely and stay sharp.
- DL
Disclosure
Long GOOG, 75% V, 35% PWRD, 133% JCG
Short USO
UPDATE 1:
NOTICE JCG rebounded off from its lowest point at $35.85 and CLOSED ABOVE THE JANUARY BOTTOM of $36.40. The floor is still in tact.
JCG closed Monday @$36.47
Watch this trade very carefully, it could turn profitable in the very near future.
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10 comments:
Hi Xman,
I have been watching JCG today too and I bought at $36.20. I have a stop loss at $34.90. Let see how this goes.
I also sold my PWRD last week and looking for another entry point as well.
Good luck to us!
Vincent,
Good to know someone is on board with me! Stay disciplined and trust the technicals! Best of luck to us.
As for PWRD, my signal to buy is when the RSI pulls back below 40 again (I'd say between 35-39). It closed at 44 today from a 6 month perspective. Today the stock has effectively broken through it's 20 and 200DMA which is why the stock is taking such a big beating. But remember PWRD breaks resistance/support very easily so it's not surprising to me.
But watch for the next potential firesale on the stock, if the RSI hits the 35-39 target, you know what to do.
XMAN.
Can you give me your plans on AAPL?
I too am out of PWRD, but waiting with you all for re-entry.
Bassman,
I've love Apple it is a great stock. But keeping it real, I just cannot buy it at this level. Even with the recent spikes down it has been seeing I do not feel comfortable putting on positions. We have to consider the fact the stock has made a run up from 115 to where it is now in a matter of 2 1/2 months without any major pullback or a retrace back to its 50DMA. The stock is just way too far from it. It is sitting right on the 20DMA right now so I suppose if you just wanted to scalp a few point this could prove to be a nice support. But should it break, you're going to see Apple sold down the river.
I have nothing against the company. But from a purely technical standpoint, it is just too hard for me to buy.
How about your plan. Are you thinking about putting on a position? What's your strategy to play apple?
I used to play a lot of AAPL but now I am out of it. I feel that it doesn't have much room to run anymore. I am thinking there will be a sell off once the 3G iphones are announced or released.
I am more confident in GOOG and I am long as I have a huge position. I was reading trading with mojo (http://modj97-predictwallstreet.blogspot.com/) the other day and he said GOOG would be going down, but it's still holding up ok. There $600 resistance looks very hard to break, but I think if that breaks, this will fly.
Going to just papertrade my ideals right now on AAPL. I was about to jump in but glad I asked you all ahead.
Watching JCG. Ready to jump in. It looks like it will do as GRMN did; pop quickly, soon.
Worried about index's though. Looking like a major leg down is starting.
Long RIMM & PWRD
I was on vacation and trying to sell my PWRD last Friday...of course I coudln't remember my security question and couldn't do it! haha. I'll wait for the upswing...looks like it's at the 50dma and meeting resistance again...
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