With that said, I try damn hard to tip the balance toward my favor. And with the turbulence in the U.S. stock market, I've decided to create a blog to discuss interesting stocks that can present good opportunities to make money (both long or short).
Feel free to correct me if you think I'm wrong I welcome all comments. I welcome stocks that you know are good that want my opinion for. If you're a technical trader as well please feel free to tell me something I don't know.
The bottom line is this: I just want to make money, and I'm sure most of you do too. And let's face it, Wall street and the media is full of shit with the things they say and are losing investors their hard earned life savings. It just makes me sick to my stomach. My thesis is if we want to make money in this market we have to move either before they do or with them. Acting after a move has already happened will just break our hearts.
Luckily, we have something that even the pros use also. Technical Charts. That's right. What we see is what they see. And in a market where volatility are at levels never before seen, I believe TA is a tool we can use to stay in sync with the street.
Well that should be enough of an intro. Let's get to it. Here is Mosiac (Ticker symbol MOS) and why I think while trading this stock may be profitable in the near term, holding onto it for the long haul may be a rough ride. Let's take a look at the 6 month and 3 year periods.
Consider the Following:
- The Relative Strength (RSI) of MOS in 6 months have held up around 40. We are at 39.
- But, RSI is starting to show a downtrend, as indicated.
- MOS broke the 50 DMA. But if the trend is still in tact, there should be a strong rebound.
- Sell volume on the stock rose dramatically. But will we start seeing bids?
- Stochastics never fell below 20 in the past 6 months. We are at 31
- Negative Force index meter reading usually indicates an impending reversal.
So what to make of this? The stock is right now is at a very crucial juncture. If it cannot start getting strong volume bids it is in danger of violating the 2 year bull trend. The only catalyst I can think of right now that may save it is Earnings due out in a few weeks. But in a market like this. Every day is an eternity.
So at what price to buy? Here's the 3 year chart.
If you notice from a 3 year chart MOS is in a definitive bulltrend. With the middle bollinger band (dotted line) showing amazing support at every test. Because of this, my target entry point to go long for a trade is around $85-88. With a stop at 80. If it follows the trend and reverses in the short term, we should be able to see mos return to the high 100's.
With that said, the long term trouble that may emerge in this stock cannot be overlooked. Mosiac is starting to show signs of deterioration and a downtrending pattern. If earnings cannot push MOS back up to over 115+ and beyond, I smell some trouble. Time will tell.
Good luck to all of us.
- DL
2 comments:
Hey I like the work you've done with grmn...I was thinking and worked out alot of the same things you have there. I'm wondering how reliable moving avg's are off week charts?? don't most people follow daily charts? Have you factored in the downside of tom tom's earnings?? that might be a better time to buy as well. I was thinking the stock could be around 40 if tom tom says the pnd market is weak. At those levels with grmn's positive earnings and some upgrades a 20-30% jump is almost inevitable. Either way I agree the downside at these levels are small and can't see it breaking 38-40 off any news...everything is already factored in at these prices.
Let me know what you think...
The reason why I expanded to the weekly 3 year chart is because only through the bigger picture will we be able to see the 200DMA. From a 3, 6 month daily chart it looks like there's absolutely no hope at all for GRMN. But just remember, I'm just doing it for a trade. I am ready to jump ship as well the second things get way too sour. But I figure right now a 5 point downside, but a potential 10-15 point upside is a risk-reward I'm willing to take. I have factored in the tom-tom news already and most likely that was what caused the massive selloff especially on 4/8. Just my opinion, but I'm willing to take a chance here to see how it works out.
Good luck!
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