Research In Motion: Sure bet into earnings or a bull trap in the making?

Research In Motion (RIMM), maker of the benchmark business standard Blackberry Smartphone, is set to report earnings on 4/2/2008. Is it really an opportunity to buy before earnings because wall street is hyping it? Or is this a bull trap ready to annihilate uninformed investors who listens to the business media without scrutiny?

Consider:

- Stock has already made a huge move up (from the low of $93.36 to $115.34 = ~$22) since middle of March
- MACD (Although a lagging indicator) shows there's not much more room to run
- Stochastics indicate overbought status
- RSI is already at 60's, in the past 4 months, it has not gone up over 65.
- Still in a bear market
- High wall street expectations (100% increase revenue yoy)
- Too many wall street analyst raising its price target. ($150+)
- The past two times when RIMM Gapped higher THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN AN ENSUING SELLOFF

Opinion:
The contrarian play makes a lot more sense and is much safer. If rimm post blowout earnings and the stock rockets 15-20 points, that would put it in the level of 135+ which according to Technicals will be WAY OVERBOUGHT for the short term. It leads me to believe it will sell off very hard after its move.

Plus, Apple's iPhone is the new standard of smartphone platform. Rimm's platform, unfortunately, is far out of date.

Let RIMM potentially explode to the upside (perhaps retracing its 52 week high level of $137) and then SHORT if somehow it defies logic and goes above its 52 week high mark of $137. If the company does not blowout earnings, or provides weak forward guidance, IT WILL TANK VERY HARD (possibly retrace back to its 200DMA level of $94).

Plan: Wait for the potential explosion to the high 130's, then ride the profit taking wave down (Possibly 15-20 points over the course of a few weeks) back down to $110-$115.

~$20 per share potential profit made short. 2 week target. 3-4% trailing stop. Bottom line: Not advisable to buy into earnings...in fact seems very risky at this point. Don't buy the stock based on the media hype. That's how money is LOST.

So if I am wrong, the most you will lose is 5-8 points on the continual upswing of people trying to pile into the stock for a few points. If I am right (as far as not going long into earnings or shorting it after its explosion), then I've either saved you from a ton of pain or even better, I made you some fast money. Invest wisely. Good luck

-DL