I have been away for quite some time. And my apologies for not even saying anything and just took off. The reason being was simply I needed some time away from the stock market. The market's inconsistency coupled with fire-selling on stocks that have already been beat up severely defies logic and frankly frustrated me to a point where I needed to step back and regroup. And that was exactly what I did. For a few weeks I just held my positions, checked them once daily and that was it.
But running is not the solution. So I am back now. I don't know how many of you still check the blogs but I will try to pick up the pieces where I've left off. We've had a few sizable moves up but all were greeted by hard sells. We even hit below 11k today...sad times for the stock market.
The Vix meter is nearing the 30+ mark again, put/call ratio is extremely skewed towards the put side, the sentiment is severely negative.
The government has been doing absolutely nothing productive to induce investor confidence. Add all of this to the unbelieveable drop the financial sector have experienced and we have on our hands a tumultuous period in time that will most likely go down in history books as one of the worst in the 21st century.
As for my positions...ya I have been taking beatings pretty hard. Still have JCG, V, RIO, GOOG, Sold my PWRD. And I've also initiated a position on Alleghany technologies (ATI) with a cost average of $55.
As for an outlook, lets see what the technicals of the chart tells us:
The massive downdraft we have experienced the past 2 months is simply UNBELIEVABLE. I don't dare to try to call a bottom but if I were to look care carefully it is obvious that yesterday 7/15 the selling was at its HIGHEST dating all the way back to the beginning of the year.
-Indicators are just severely oversold
- Sentiment is extremely negative
- Short levels HIGHEST since Bear Stearns
We have broken the lows and gone down significantly. So there's no denying now, this market is an official bear. However, it doesn't mean the markets can't bounce hard 5-10% in the near future just simply because of how ugly the tape has gotten. We have to acknowledge the fact that this market is going to take a long time to repair. And to fight a trend is to just ask for pain. But my inclination for now is we're so far below oversold that the market just needs a slight excuse or something positive to come out to give shorts the incentives to say "it's time to take profits".
OIL needs to come down. And I continue to believe that a significant correction will be coming. The key right now is in Oil, Financials, and our dollar. If Oil comes down, Financials get a bid, and the dollar firms up, we will see this market rally hard. If not, we will continue to see this dripping death.
Well that's all I have for now folks. It's been a long while, I have read all you guys comments and I appreciate you guys conversations and ideas. It makes me realize why I ought to keep up with this blog. Because together we can help one another to navigate through these historic and unusual periods.
God Bless, and God speed to all of us.
- David Lok (DL) aka the Xman
Disclosure:
Long V, GOOG, JCG, RIO, ATI
5 comments:
Hey X, welcome back man. I thought that was what happened man, I monitored the positions you had and they were getting slammed, as well as the ones I was holding. Its been hell but I been looking at all the red to learn from it.
I'm still surviving man ,haven't taken a loss yet, I've doubled and tripled down and jumping through hoops to stay away from losses man. This market is a killer. It caught me in long positions and yes, the VIX is one that I wasn't monitoring like I should.
hey X, if you wanna join the group I mentioned you're welcome too. We need solid guy guys like you and the rest of the fellas.
Hey X,
Welcome back, what a pleasure to read you...Looks like today is the day where you're going to gain all that money back...Rally is insane...
Again, welcome back :) We've been here, all along...
M. for Michael :)
welcome back xman.
the market has been really irrational since you were gone, just when you think it can't go lower, it went much more lower.
PWRD, it was actually staying strong, almost broke $28 few days ago but then it came down hard. I still have it and think it still can go back up. Why did you sell it?
GOOG, I have a large position and I am praying earnings will be good tomorrow. There has been no negative news since the last report but the stock hasn't moved. I guess this is due to the market or else this is at least or close to 600 already.
Then I was stupid to buy some solar (YGE and SOL), they are coming back, but still not to the level I bought them at.
Do you think today's rally will continue?
Is it too early to buy UYG?
marketm,
It would be nice to join your discussion group. Let me know the info.
Maiike,
Thanks for sticking around, I look forward discussing stocks with you again.
Vincent,
I sold PWRD simply because I wanted to lock some profits when I had them. But hey, PWRD went to 28 thats great! Remember a month ago I was gritting my teeth to buy. And looking back now it has paid off once again.
UYG had a mega move up today so would be nice to see a little pause and see how the charts setup tomorrow. But I mean all the financial sectors have been annihilated the past month that chances are if we were to start getting a sustainable rebound UYG will no doubt be a great value now. We will see!
Welcome back X.
Based on my wave chart study, around july 10 should be the turning point. It turned out that July 15 is the date. I did quite a bit of bottom fishing that day, especially on financial.
I need to see confirmation before chasing the rally. Bear rally could be very powerful.
I am adding VLO. If oil comes down, VLO will move much higher from here.
Post a Comment