Not much to say today besides yes, sucks to be in this position and sucks that every single equity position I have is working against me today. I have to be honest I did not expect the markets to whipsaw like this and I did not set myself up correctly for it. Usually I have a sixth sense about the moves to come. But today, just like yesterday, completely blindsided me. Nevertheless, during times of fire selling and negativity in news headline, we just have to remain discipline and trust what the charts show us. That way, we don't panic sell ourselves and do something stupid.
PWRD taking a big hit today, it is near the double bottom it formed a couple weeks back. The RSI/Stochasics are still well below average and are still very oversold. Therefore, I am buying the remaining 25% position now @ 24.00 . This is going to be a longer term hold for me until I see it showing signs of overbought on the charts. I am convicted.
Same with JCG. Not very nice to see all my nice gains from yesterday evaporate again. But I am going to stay disciplined and let this ride out. I believe the downside is way overdone on these stocks. And yes, even though today it may not feel like it, I am still going to hold on to the shares. This has been pretty much a bottom fished play. So I am confident 1 month down the line the price will be significantly higher than where it is now.
USO...this chart has been unbelievable. Although I believe the ultimate direction of oil will be down the next month or so, it's not very nice to see my short go from being positive to down 10% in 2 sessions. It hit my cover today as it reached $110. Half my position has been sold as a result. Well, I stuck with it through thick and thin. But there still comes a time when I have to keep my losses in check. I didn't have a very large position in it so hey, live and learn. I still think the chart is extremely overextended on USO, but I can't fade the strength it exudes. Good luck to people chasing this long, and congrats if you had the courage to buy it during its monster dips.
I'm not paying attention to the indices today. Rather, I'm spending my time to review and study charts. I already know today is going to be ugly, so need to turn a bad situation into a good one. I'm interested in hearing you guys opinion on how you feel about the markets. And how you are positioning yourselves for the days to come.
Live to fight another day
- DL
Disclosure
Long GOOG, 75%V, 100%PWRD, 166% JCG
Short 50% USO
Update 1
- Recognize this chart pattern? Green line is where I project the stock will be headed in the near future. This could be the W pattern forming with all the indicators at extremely oversold status. Note the light volume selloff, double bottom holding in, and where the stock has sold off from to here.
Hurts now, but trust that discipline and technicals will lead us back to the green. Don't act on impulse and emotions. Stay true to facts and numbers.
- DL
49 comments:
Marketm,
So are you long AG, short Shippers right now?
I saw some of those have already taken huge hits especially DRYS. Do you think there's going to be more downside to come?
Ag looks good to me as well. Looks like its ready to break out.
I'm watching AAPL. They should be releasing 3G iphone, which should be huge. Will it sell on the news? Or ramp up afterwards. Monday is the conference.
I have no position in AAPL currently.
I think the shippers will be a true test of tech analysis for you guys...you can interpret as a head and shoulder pattern (although the right shoulder is pretty weak) and say shipping rates are high and bound to come down OR you can say that almost every one of the shippers is hovering around support. Lets see if they break support (i.e. GNK support seems to be around $63, which is also around the 50dma).
This is what I don't get about tech analysis, every scenario has a theoretical rationale. Any thoughts xman?
5.5% unemployment certainly paints a darker picture moving forward. Especially if you factor in, we are at best, 50% through this mess. Pricing in a full recession would bring the Dow to its knees (below 11k).
Its worth noting, that metal stocks (dry shippers correlate with metals) tend to follow the general market. Dry shippers prob will continue to sell off if the general market retreats.
Regardless of where the market trends, I like natural gas stocks, Ag (a bit pricey), and AAPL.
PWRD must hold 22. otherwise, it will fall hard.
STLD looks pretty good to me.
I will wait for a pullback before buying AG. I agreed drybulks will go much lower from here.
anybody buying more PWRD and JCG today? Or just locking in stops? Im hanging on to both. Looking to buy more PWRD, maybe.
Whats your options?
Asian markets are down today, so that may be the reason PWRD is also taking a hit.
I'm getting close to my stop loss point as well (22.30), but I don't think this thing will actually tank past 20 since that seems like support long term...at this point the upside seems better than the downside so I'll probably hold and lower my stop loss. Plus the fundamentals and prospects haven't changed unless I'm wrong.
MONKIES.
My thoughts are the same. Bought more of PWRD at the current level 22.62, and JCG.
hey guys,
I am on the road right now, actually typing this response on my Iphone. Nevertheless, I already know today is another painful day. But I have not sold anything. I am just going to have to hold on to these plays for longer period now...
Hang tough my friends. Hope you all had a good trading day.
question on growth:
I just bought more PWRD today as well...I'm curious tho...revenues are 130 million ttm, and the market cap is 1.3 billion. How do people assess what a company is worth? Even if they grow at 40% yoy, the market cap is huge compared to the money coming in. I am thinking of this the wrong way? Just curious...
Wheres everybody at?
MarketM
Give me some symbols on the shippers and ags. Thanks
MarketM,
You were dead on about the shippers! Guess my contrarian view to your thought was off! I bought MOS a few months ago and looks like Ag technically is on a uptrend now...breaking out (even in this market!).
Anyone have a take on the oil stocks...i was looking at NBR but man that thing never takes a breather.
Hey guys,
Great discussion. I have been following you guys post. The reason I have not been updating my blog is because I am away on a trip visiting some friends and I do not have my laptop. So all I can do for now is check on my iphone what has been going on in the markets.
To brief you guys, I have bought some new positions. Bought RIO today (steel and mining company) because I think it looks like a good opportunity after a huge pullback. Also bought my Visa position back at 77.8 I think the markets are due for a bounce very soon after the hard selling we've had this week. Be careful guys.
Take care, I'll be back on Saturday so I will catch up with all of you then. Please keep posting here and let me know what you guys have been doing. Even though I'm not updating the blog I am always reading. And I am so happy some of you have nailed some good calls even on an ugly market like this. Cheers
- DL
myself has been shorting DRYS. I am ready to short BIDU if it can confirm breaking 320 support.
I bought more PWRD yesterday at 22.48. Also bought IPI which seems to be in an strong uptrend.
VLO has reached the low of 43.5 and rebound again. A good time to buy some.
JM2C.
What the heck happened to SOL. Is it time to buy some shares? Nice ticker name btw.
whats our target on PWRD?
PWRD will move higher from here. Time to add more.
how about JCG?
guys!
PWRD finally getting short squeezed bigtime! Our discipline is finally paying off!
JCG I imagine is going to have some nice upside from here as long as it can reclaim the $34 mark.
I've missed trading alongside with you guys lately. I'll be back in action by tomorrow. I hope you guys had a terrific week! I have been reading all of you guys post. VERY VERY GOOD CALLS BY SOME OF YOU. BRAVO
Take care for now. And good luck!~
- DL
first level of resistance for PWRD is at $25.19 should PWRD pass that, the next level would be at $26.53
The stock has been killed so hard for so long though that I believe it can break through all these resistances. Stay disciplined and let it work out imo.
X, if you're looking for another JCG type play, look into CCH they're Coca-Cola's Greek bottling subsidy. They lowered their guidance for the year and had a massive gap down ~$8 and ~21% it is relatively low volume so your buying should be able to move the bid price. I'm looking at it as both a trade and investment oppurtunity.
mr. jeanius,
i am definitely going to look into this play. But I have learned my lesson from JCG and that is usually when there are fire sales in companies they will probably sell off some more the subsequent days before stabilizing. I'm not sure where we can find stable support but I wouldn't be surprised if CCH hits $30. There's also a 200DMA support at $25 dollars from a 3 year perspective but I don't think it's going to get there...but then again who knows?!
I will do more homework on it when I return this weekend. Thanks for your call.
xman.
Whats up? Wheres everybody at?
Looks like the shippers just exploded today...I take it the recent decent of the shippers was due to the BDI dropping due to demand from China (maybe the earthquake?). I know the market is super reactive/over-reactive, but if global demand is in fact normal and this knee-jerk decent wasn't warranted, will the shippers (DRYS, GNK) and RIO take off? Or is this a hiccup?
The shippers and metals came down because of inflation fears. It has hosed over chinas stock market ytd. More recently Brazil stocks, after rate increase. RIO fell 20%.
Oversold bounce. Dollar losing value (as usual) also helps.
Inflation fears are still alive globally though.
Nice calls on TRA and SQM, marketm.
I bought some SQM back when you recommended it. Missed out on TRA. I did buy POT then, which has underperformed its peers.
MON earnings around the corner, so how much longer can Ag break out?
http://www.citywire.co.uk/professional/-/news/shares-news/content.aspx?ID=306011
Inflation could bring the global economy to its knees. Pretty serious problems everyone is dealing with.
Already noticing sentiment among friends, faimly become more darker from gas prices, unemployment, housing.
Did you sell SQM and TRA? I know a correction will come to Ag. Just a question of when, and how long.
marketm, are you shorting Ags? I know xman probably would at these levels, wherever he is.
xman,
I guess it's clear for everybody here, we miss your posts, clear insight, wise advice. Tell you the truth, I was eager to read from you everyday, learning something new. You're the one who really got me into Technical Analysis (and I'm thanking you for it). Reading your blog was motivating. Come back :)
M.
Yeah XMAN, get back here and get the education going! This is primo learning right now...market getting to support, Ag dropping, surprised you're not salivating at the mouth! haha
I just sold out of my MOS position today...had a stop 6% below the high and it dropped big today! Waiting to see what happens with Ag....marketm has a good strategy. Think it's too bold to set a buy stop limit order 5% up from todays low in case this was the 'correction?'
Oh, also thinking of AGU instead of MOS...thoughts????
Whats yalls thoughts on SLB? Anyone in the oil well service eq?
I feel bad not jumping into HK. Hot damn.
It seems like energy stocks are ready to pop though. Something feels ominous...financials are looking darker, high global inflation, energy stocks with unexplainable and insane gains today.
Buy some hedges if you jump into any stock.
Anyone heard from XMAN?
Xman,
Where are youuuuu ?
Guys,
Don't know about you but I'm losing faith. Maybe there's another website where he posts. Let me know :)
M.
haha...losing faith in the market? kidding. maybe some brokerage company swiped up xman!
Wow, steel stocks getting hosed. GM going bankrupt? I hope not. That potentially could spell crash. Careful with your longs guys.
Seems xman is not coming back here. saw him at google board last week.
Hey guys, if you're looking for a new place to discuss/post stocks, join me at, http://groups.google.com/group/shippingstocks?hl=en
It's a private group in Google and we deal with shipping and Ag stocks mostly.
Email and ask for an invite, tell them MarketM recommended you.
Email-shippingstocks@googlegroups.com
Post a Comment